I was building an in-house infra management platform (including a self hosted AI agent) for companies in a segment that's very careful about its internal IP.
I spoke to the CTO of a well funded company who was spending a few millions on AWS infrastructure per year with budget overshoots etc. I pitched the product to him with all the details and he understood it but at the end of the day, his response was that he'd rather pay AWS for the convenience rather than manage this by himself.
noufalibrahim
SaaS partially took the place of bespoke projects that people were doing before. They never stopped doing those of course and there were also off the shelf packages that people bought before SaaS.
AI lowers the cost of creating bespoke software that competes with both. Instead of buying a one size fits all thing that half does what you need, you can now have a thing that is a bit better suited to your needs. There will be a lot more demand for those things. A lot of these things are going to require deep domain knowledge and some system thinking skills.
This is still hard enough to do well that a lot of the creation work will be outsourced to professionals. Even if that involves the use of AI prompting. Maybe after naive attempts to do it in house fail. My hunch is that there will be a lot of growth for those that can do these types of projects efficiently and that it might more than offset the job losses in the SaaS sector.
There are a lot of of companies that are still under using software. There never was any good SaaS that fit their needs and they lacked the skills to do it themselves. When you lower the cost of something (creating software) the market usually grows. A lot of things that were previously not feasible are now doable.
jillesvangurp
The risk for SaaS isn't that customers will build their own but that the barrier to entry for competitors is lower.
The Chorleywood process created mega bakeries that displaced regular bakeries because they changed the economics. AI is doing the same and fundamentally changing the economics of production. What used to take years and huge teams to build can be built by much smaller teams much faster.
SaaS isn't going to sublimate straight into consumer built tools but the boiling point for competition has gotten a lot lower.
notarobot123
My guess is that SaaS will be around, but it's going to look really different.
Say there's a company that sells you a subscription to an issue tracker. At first, it looks just like any other web-based issue tracker. But, although you won't realize it at first, it's hosted on a Linux VM with a development environment on it. Each customer's app gets built from source.
Then, when you want something changed, you send a message to support. And they just bounce it to a coding agent that edits the source code and rebuilds it.
The sort of customization that enterprises used to pay big bucks for is going to get dramatically cheaper.
(There are technical issues making this safe, but I think they'll be solved.)
skybrian
This went straight from medieval guilds to the 1920s, but actual bread mass production started in the Victorian era, and people did have a big negative reaction to that. They adulterated bread in ways that poisoned consumers during that period, which was a tad unpopular.
I completely agree that people are vastly undervaluing convenience, reliability and SaaS being essentially a great way to make something “someone else’s problem”.
The count argument would be that building with AI will potentially give you infinite customizability, which is especially attractive if you’ve ever hit a brick wall using a line-of-business SaaS product. It works great until you hit that wall.
But again, I think this counter argument oversells the value of customization. Most users-would-be-builders would happily build a monstrosity that doesn’t even serve themselves well, if you let them. Building good workflows (and therefore good SaaS products) is not nearly as easy or straightforward as it seems.
lordofmoria
This is one of the best articles I've seen come across HN lately. You presented a well structured argument, and one I strongly believe in.
I had a conversation with someone the other day, trying to convince them how easy it would be to solve a problem they had by creating a quick program with Claude. They were so computer averse, so used to thinking that coding was some impossible task, that they refused to even try or let me show them.
SaaS isn't dead at all. In fact, I think we may have just entered the golden age
noah-cavoli
Unlike most articles that butcher an analogy so badly that you wish they could have just described the concept plainly, this one uses the analogy really well. It carries it from start to finish without overstretching it.
This line captures the essence of the article and is going to stick with me forever:
> SaaS is the bread, not the bread machine.
And yes, SaaS companies that understand that they sell convenience and accountability will be the ones that survive this AI rush. New ones could emerge too.
annjose
I would disagree, but before let me acknowledge how well written article is and bread analogy is spot on.
However, author complete discounted open source and ability to spin up open source software that will replicate almost 1:1 what SaaS offers without a pay-to-access requirement.
Why spend thousands on integration with SaaS that you can take open source, vibe code missing features and start using? You say maintenance, but I'd argue that owning your data is more important that costs of maintenance.
Like bread, when you learn and have ability to choose healthier product you never go back to store brought.
isawczuk
All these arguments ignore that the bread you buy today is not always the bread you’ll get years from now.
Don’t we all know the cycle by now?
1. Company pours money and resources to create good product
2. Good product gets customers and those customers use word of mouth to get product viral and even more customers
3. Eventually the company has to make a profit and in that pursuit, they make the product worse by adding ads, adding paywalls, forcing login or subscription service, dark patterns
I’ve seen it happen with so many products I used that I only use open-source now. And if the feature is small, I just build it myself. In your bread example, open-source is the ultimate cookbook and chefs who understand that cookbook can out cook the best chefs out there.
comments (10)
I spoke to the CTO of a well funded company who was spending a few millions on AWS infrastructure per year with budget overshoots etc. I pitched the product to him with all the details and he understood it but at the end of the day, his response was that he'd rather pay AWS for the convenience rather than manage this by himself.
noufalibrahim
AI lowers the cost of creating bespoke software that competes with both. Instead of buying a one size fits all thing that half does what you need, you can now have a thing that is a bit better suited to your needs. There will be a lot more demand for those things. A lot of these things are going to require deep domain knowledge and some system thinking skills.
This is still hard enough to do well that a lot of the creation work will be outsourced to professionals. Even if that involves the use of AI prompting. Maybe after naive attempts to do it in house fail. My hunch is that there will be a lot of growth for those that can do these types of projects efficiently and that it might more than offset the job losses in the SaaS sector.
There are a lot of of companies that are still under using software. There never was any good SaaS that fit their needs and they lacked the skills to do it themselves. When you lower the cost of something (creating software) the market usually grows. A lot of things that were previously not feasible are now doable.
jillesvangurp
The Chorleywood process created mega bakeries that displaced regular bakeries because they changed the economics. AI is doing the same and fundamentally changing the economics of production. What used to take years and huge teams to build can be built by much smaller teams much faster.
SaaS isn't going to sublimate straight into consumer built tools but the boiling point for competition has gotten a lot lower.
notarobot123
Say there's a company that sells you a subscription to an issue tracker. At first, it looks just like any other web-based issue tracker. But, although you won't realize it at first, it's hosted on a Linux VM with a development environment on it. Each customer's app gets built from source.
Then, when you want something changed, you send a message to support. And they just bounce it to a coding agent that edits the source code and rebuilds it.
The sort of customization that enterprises used to pay big bucks for is going to get dramatically cheaper.
(There are technical issues making this safe, but I think they'll be solved.)
skybrian
That drove consumers to some curious brands: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerated_Bread_Company
nitwit005
The count argument would be that building with AI will potentially give you infinite customizability, which is especially attractive if you’ve ever hit a brick wall using a line-of-business SaaS product. It works great until you hit that wall.
But again, I think this counter argument oversells the value of customization. Most users-would-be-builders would happily build a monstrosity that doesn’t even serve themselves well, if you let them. Building good workflows (and therefore good SaaS products) is not nearly as easy or straightforward as it seems.
lordofmoria
I had a conversation with someone the other day, trying to convince them how easy it would be to solve a problem they had by creating a quick program with Claude. They were so computer averse, so used to thinking that coding was some impossible task, that they refused to even try or let me show them.
SaaS isn't dead at all. In fact, I think we may have just entered the golden age
noah-cavoli
This line captures the essence of the article and is going to stick with me forever:
> SaaS is the bread, not the bread machine.
And yes, SaaS companies that understand that they sell convenience and accountability will be the ones that survive this AI rush. New ones could emerge too.
annjose
isawczuk
Don’t we all know the cycle by now?
1. Company pours money and resources to create good product
2. Good product gets customers and those customers use word of mouth to get product viral and even more customers
3. Eventually the company has to make a profit and in that pursuit, they make the product worse by adding ads, adding paywalls, forcing login or subscription service, dark patterns
I’ve seen it happen with so many products I used that I only use open-source now. And if the feature is small, I just build it myself. In your bread example, open-source is the ultimate cookbook and chefs who understand that cookbook can out cook the best chefs out there.
theturtletalks